Monday, July 12, 2010

The Eastern Hemisphere Gets Physical

The degree of demand for physical gold from Asia/India can be meausured by the premium or discount to the world spot price in those countries that the buyers are willing pay.  This metric is influenced by the nominal price of gold plus the relative value of the country's currency.  Up until the paper manipulators decided to hammer on the price of gold last Thursday, these premiums in India, Shanghai and Viet Nam had slipped into negative territory over the past few weeks, indicating no real buying was occuring.  This market condition transitioned last week from negative premiums to extremely high premiums, indicating that these countries resumed their importation of gold "hand-over-fist."  Market reporting on this is provided by "JB," who publishes his report in the nightly Midas commentary at http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/.  It is a very valuable service for gold market participants.

A significant event occurred over the weekend in Viet Nam, that I'm quite confident very few will know about in this country.  Viet Nam is quietly the 5th largest "consumer" of gold - very few know that factoid as well.  Last week, with the manipulated smashing of gold, the import premium in Viet Nam soared to the extent that the Viet Namese Government signed a decision which allows businesses to resume importing gold (Viet Nam has an active "black market" for gold, but this move legitimizes the buying).  Here's a link to the report:  Viet Nam Gets Jiggy With Gold  In JB's words:  "This could provide a useful increment to physical off take. In the right mood Vietnam is a world-class gold importer."

What many who do not follow this market avidly, and what does not get reported in the mainstream media, is that the physical market for gold is starting to overrun the ability of the major Western Central Banks to control the price using the paper market.  This dynamic is largely is being driven by large gold buying countries in Asia and by India.  Since, I have posted several commentaries on this over the past few weeks,  I wanted to post this thesis as expressed by The Daily Bell: 
Many in the gold community hadn't actually expected any sort of significant upside for gold and gold stocks until after the FOMC meeting in August, where presumably the Federal Reserve would indicate that it was returning to more money printing operations. But now it would seem there could be significant action in the gold market even before August, given what might be seen as artificial selling pressure.

Conclusion: Our point here is that once again matters may be moving beyond the elite's ability to maintain control (see other article this issue). At the very least, it is ironic that, given the strength of the market, efforts to restrain the price of gold – whether by manipulation or intimidation – may only end-up reinforcing money-metal price appreciation.
Here is a link to the entire article, which is worth reading:  Pressure Builds Underneath The Price Of Gold

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