Despite a determined, concerted effort by the bullion banks to push the price of gold/silver lower, the precious metals have managed to maintain a surprising degree of buoyancy. In fact, many of us have been discussing this departure from the usual pattern in which the price of the metals historically during this bull market have typically succumbed to to a painful beating when the cartel decides to work on liquidating the COT open interest.
As such, i'm wondering if the dollar is getting ready to roll over start heading south again. Here's a chart (daily, spot basis):
Certainly the fundamentals which underpin the dollar continue to deteriorate pretty quickly. In today's 2-yr Treasury note auction, the primary dealers had to swallow 57% of the deal. That's an unusually large amount for a shorter-duration note auction. The economic data, despite the colorful lipstick being slapped on the pig by the media, is showing some deterioration. And of course the dollar is responding today to the China's interest rate hike.
Having said all that, it is clear to anyone who puts a little thought into it that the only hope the U.S. Government has of financing its deficit spending and possibly stimulating economic activity is to print a lot of money and take the dollar a lot lower.
Monday, December 27, 2010
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