I thought that I would publish this list, put together by my friend and colleague, Andy H., in order to put the global demand for gold in perspective. Please keep in mind that many of the sovereign buyers were, at various times in the last 15 years, sellers of gold. Also keep in mind that, on average over the last 15 years, the global demand for gold has been exceeding the globaly supply by roughly 1000 tons per year. This deficit historically has been filled by Central Bank selling. In addition to most Central Banks now acting as buyers, the global mining output has been in steady decline over the past few years, even with China displacing South Aftrica as the largest gold producer.
As you can see, there are only two known "official" sellers/lessors of gold. With regard to the recent IMF 212 ton transaction, it is questionable as to whether or not this was an outright sale and transfer of physical gold OR an accounting transfer, in which India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius simply withdrew their gold "deposit" as part of their IMF membership terms. All three countries have IMF gold depositories and the "sale" would have required nothing more than an accounting transfer. I have yet to see the IMF or any other official source dispute this. Here is the list:
Buyers:
1. Chinese government
2. Chinese population
3. Indian government
4. Indian population
5. Viet Nam
6. Russia
7. Middle East (Turkey, etc.)
8. Cambodia
9. European population (record demand)
10. American population (record demand)
11. Basically ALL populations (record demand)
12. CBGA signatories (at least no longer selling)
13. Gold companies, particularly Barrick
14. ETFs, such as GLD (record holdings, new funds being created every month)
15. Major hedge fund managers, such as Paulson, Soros, and Tudor Jones
Sellers:
1. U.S. government, via acknowledged swaps
2. U.S. government, via derivatives/paper gold futures contracts via bullion banks
3. U.S. government, via Federal Reserve, via Warsh et al admissions
4. U.S. government, via IMF, likely via U.S. government-owned or leased gold
5. Bank of England via sales or leasing
6. Bank of Canada (hat tip to Mike - see his comment posted in the comments section)
I think we can all come to the same conclusion about what happens when you have a commodity that has a large structural deficit between demand and supply...
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
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