This post is in conjunction with my earlier post today. It seems as if Janet Tavakoli, a widely acknowledged expert in derivatives and structured finance - both real world and academic - has published a piece today, published by the Huffington Post, in which apparently there are CDS buyers who are calling for contracts that require gold as collateral rather than euros or U.S. dollars. Although she does not specifically mention who the buyers of these swaps are, I believe it makes sense that China is one of the primary buyers of CDS protection of U.S. Treasuries being that they have close $1 trillion in exposure to Treasuries, and might want to "hedge" their postion a bit with something other than fiat paper and would be asking for something tangible like gold as collateral.
My friend "Jesse" of Jesse's Cafe Americain has written an excellent commentary today which is accompanied by a link to Ms. Tavakoli's article. Here's the link: LINK.
As Jesse points out, it would make sense that China would want to receive settlement in something other than dollars if the U.S. Govt credit rating is downgraded. In fact, gold makes the most sense because a U.S. downgrade would also mean that every other fiat currency is likely in the toilet. My guess is that it's one of those "where there's smoke, there's fire" type of deals. Hopefully we can receive further confirmation on this.
Monday, March 8, 2010
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