Sunday, May 2, 2010

The Gulf Oil Spill Tragedy - A Nuclear Accident Equivalent

All I can say about this is that the unintended consequences will be enormous. Presumably British Petroleum is carrying full insurance coverage. The costs involved - all encompassing, not just the direct clean-up costs - will run into the $100's of billions. If you think I'm nuts, please read this analysis:  Beyond Catastrophic.

Not factored into that author's cost analysis is the likelihood that massive insurance company OTC derivatives - credit default swaps, etc. - will likely be triggered as insurance coverage is maxed out.  I'm positive none of BP's insurers ever anticipated or reserved properly for something like this. This disaster will trigger many bankruptcies, large and small.  BP itself is likely toast, if the U.S. Government exercises proper justice.

The market cap of BP as of Friday's close was $165 billion.  If Obama is doing the job he should be doing here, he should seize BP's operations, freeze all of its bank accounts and those of its senior management and board of directors.  The U.S. Government should effectively takeover the BP and seek to manage it for the goal of squeezing all possible economic value out of the Company and use that money to manage this disaster. 

Take a look at the graphic in the above-linked article.  If you own real estate anywhere along the Gulf Coast or the East Coast, your property has just lost a lot of value.  That this happened is beyond unimaginable, especially since the technology to prevent this was available and widely used throughout Europe.  There should be no mercy for BP and it's senior executives.

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